Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
