Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
