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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against five other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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